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Probably not, according to Shawn Robbins, chief analyst at Boxoffice.com.
“Unless there is a drastic setback from current plans to gradually reopen cinemas, I wouldn’t bet on it,” Robbins said. “The blockbusters remaining on the schedule have too much dependency on box office revenue.”
Robbins added that a digital release could also “cannibalize the profits of a major title” via potential home video sales and global box office returns.
A summer movie season amid coronavirus
Keeping blockbusters on the big screen is sometimes about more than money, however.
“Unless aliens possess his frontal lobe, Nolan will not cave to the cries of digital,” Jeff Bock, senior analyst at entertainment research firm Exhibitor Relations, told CNN Business. “And if Warner Bros. decides digital is the right move, he’ll likely never work with them again.”
But like “Tenet,” it’s unlikely “Mulan” makes a move to streaming or on-demand anytime soon.
Then, finally, there’s Warner Bros.’ “Wonder Woman 1984,” with its scheduled opening date of August 14. Like “Mulan,” the superhero sequel, projected to be one of the highest-grossing films of 2020, is just too big to bypass theaters.
“While I’m sure it would absolutely destroy digital record books, I think it still makes sense to play the wait and see game with this title,” Bock said.
Which summer movies could go to digital?
While major blockbusters are likely to stay in theaters, other summer films like “The SpongeBob Movie: Sponge on the Run” and “Bill & Ted Face the Music” could make their way to digital, according to Bock.
“We just don’t know at this point what the world will look like in June and July, but what we do know is if studios are planning to release these films in theaters, they’d have to begin advertising them right now,” Bock said. “That’s more money that they might be risking. That’s why these some of these films make a lot of sense going straight to digital.”
“With the uncertainty that lies ahead, studios are no doubt running alternative scenarios, crunching numbers and ultimately weighing the possibility of more films going to on-demand,” Bock said. “The pandemic will likely only streamline which films fit into that pipeline more and more going forward.”
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