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Maher captures the essential promise of the Biden campaign: he can win against Trump. Never mind the lack of excitement among many voters, or the struggle to concisely articulate what his campaign is about, this thinking goes. He might not be a perfect politician, but a Biden presidency would be better than a another four years of President Trump.
This is the big bet that many Democrats are willing to make as they double down on a candidate who has delivered a less than stellar performance thus far. Facing an incumbent president with relatively strong economic numbers and united party support, Biden Democrats are hoping to beat the odds and make Trump a one-termer in the tradition of Herbert Hoover, Jimmy Carter and George H.W. Bush.
Is the premise of this strategy sound?
To avoid Hillary Clinton’s fate in states like Michigan and Wisconsin, Democrats will need to mobilize voters and make sure that turnout is as high as possible. While Democrats might hope to flip Trump supporters, it might be a safer bet to appeal to voters who are already predisposed to the party and make sure they make it to the polls on election day. When Democratic candidates offer ideas on climate change, immigration rights and criminal justice reform, they aren’t just talking about pipe dreams. They are speaking to the real concerns of the Obama coalition and also looking to address the underlying causes that got Trump elected in order to forge a tenable path going forward.
But elections are not solely won on substance — performance matters too. This is why Biden’s laggard debate performances have raised the alarm among some Democrats. Biden appeared blindsided by Senator Kamala Harris’ attacks on federally mandated school busing during the first debate. He did better during the second round, but still stumbled over his own words and appeared tired.
How does this bode for a general election campaign when the full weight of the Republican Party will be coming after him? Will he do well in the head-to-head debates with President Trump, who will surely unleash his fire and fury on him for hours on end? Will he make any of his famous gaffes and will he be able to drum up enthusiasm on the campaign trail? The primaries and caucuses, as well as the debates, are a way for the party to test the candidate’s skills.
Democrats have by no means an easy road to victory. It’s not enough to present a candidate as the opposite of Trump. Democrats need to assemble a formidable campaign with a candidate who can shine on the campaign trail, sidestep damaging mistakes, present a rousing vision, and offer better solutions than the rage-machine in the Oval Office.
It might be that former Vice President Biden is that candidate. But playing it safe will not be enough, and doing so could very well cost Democrats the White House.
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