The Republican National Convention was slated to take place in Charlotte, North Carolina, in August. But the pandemic struck, and the governor has insisted on a
scaled down event with safety precautions that include social distancing and face masks. The President, who wants his huddled masses shoulder to shoulder as they shout their acclimations, is now looking to deliver his convention speech
in another city. More formal portions of the convention may still be held in Charlotte in order to honor the RNC’s contractual agreement with the city.
If Trump insists on a bifurcated convention, he might fatally wound his reelection campaign. North Carolina is a critical swing state, and voters there may resent being overlooked. The change could also leave an impression that the campaign is disorganized and indecisive at a time when the electorate is already faced with critical questions about the President’s ability to lead.
The RNC has a plan, though. Sort of.
Getting a political party and a city ready to host a convention is a
long and tedious process. For Republicans, especially, the convention has in recent years been held in swing states, which may help influence voters with a boost to the local economy, given the millions that go into hotels, restaurants and venues. Conventions can
generate the kind of exposure and tourism that marketing dollars cannot buy.
But what exactly does a split-city Republican convention look like? Even the platform and policy wonk gatherings in Charlotte might be endangered because the RNC communications director has indicated his party will only convene “should the governor
allow more than 10 people in a room.”
Since the President is planning on delivering his speech to an adoring crowd in another city, the attendant publicity for Charlotte will likely be about the scaled-back event and what the GOP lost by having to adapt to the coronavirus, as well as Trump’s demands. For the Queen City, this means not all publicity will be good publicity.
And now another GOP site selection committee is crossing the country considering
new locations that include Dallas, Nashville, Phoenix, Orlando, Jacksonville and Las Vegas. So, where should the RNC go?
Arizona, usually a red state, may not be this election cycle. The party’s US Senate candidate, Martha McSally, has seen her campaign against former astronaut Mark Kelly almost sink beneath the earth. A recent Fox News poll
found she trailed the Democrat by 13 points, while Joe Biden is leading Trump by four points in the Grand Canyon state. Hosting a convention in 105-degree weather in Phoenix is not likely to change those numbers.
While Las Vegas and Nashville have adequate facilities, Nevada and Tennessee don’t carry all that many electoral votes. Orlando or Jacksonville could host the speech, and Florida is a must-win, but being in the geographic center of the country might help Trump get the crowd he wants. Texas’ location allows for shorter travel distances, which increase the likelihood of attendance, and Dallas is probably the best strategic choice for Trump.
Polling shows Texas emerging as a swing state with the President leading his Democratic opponent by only one point, according to a
Quinnipiac poll. Conventional thinking refuses to acknowledge the Lone Star State can be won by Democrats in 2020.
Latino voters, historically, have had the lowest turnout of any demographic group in the state, and until they vote in greater numbers, winning Texas will be difficult for Democrats. But the GOP is scared — and losing Texas will put the White House out of reach. This loss could have lasting ramifications, and the GOP could take an entire generation to learn how to win the support of an increasingly diverse electorate.
But Texas still has big money and Trump backers like arch-conservative Gov. Greg Abbott, who has never publicly criticized the president. Dollars and sycophancy will be in great supply if the RNC holds the nominating vote and speech in Dallas.
Texas is almost a Trump petri dish to grow political absurdities. Abbott has the state’s indicted attorney general fighting legal battles to prevent voting by mail and to end Obamacare. Tax collections have
cratered with the price of oil and
tourism has plummeted during the pandemic. But a big moment in Dallas might give state politicians a chance to claim, “We’re back,” even if it’s not the whole truth.
No matter where the RNC goes next, there is a looming question: will Trump damage his support in North Carolina after Charlotte’s leadership spent two years planning the convention and the estimated
$120 million-dollar windfall it offers?
It is not a minor historical irony that the last time a presidential nominating convention was split between two cities, the decision was informed by race.
Southern Democrats in 1860 walked out of their convention in Charleston, South Carolina, in a dispute over the party’s platform on slavery. When the party reconvened in Baltimore, Northern and Southern Democrats split and Republican Abraham Lincoln went on to win the election, before eventually signing the Emancipation Proclamation.
Issues of race, 160 years later, will also influence the coming election, along with the pandemic and a flagging economy. Trump and the GOP may have made their chances of success considerably more challenging by adding uncertainty to their plans with an unorthodox split convention.
History might be hinting it plans on repeating itself. But Trump is not the type to listen.
