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Four days into the impeachment trial, some of the Senators appear more interested in the rules concerning milk than they are with what the House managers have to say. With the outcome of the trial all but certain, it’s fair to ask the House managers the same question: “Who are you talking to?”
The impeachment soap opera has not been ‘must see TV’ for most Americans. The first day of the impeachment trial drew millions less viewers on ABC, NBC, and CBS than soap operas on those networks like “The Young and Restless,” “General Hospital,” and “Days of Our Lives.” It turns out people would rather watch a fictional soap opera than the one playing out in American politics. In total, an average of 11 million people tuned in and that number dropped nearly 20% the next day. By comparison, more than 20 million people tuned in for Christine Blasey Ford’s testimony against Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh in 2018.
But that doesn’t mean Americans aren’t paying attention. Viewership for prime time cable news programming spiked.
Despite not watching the trial live, a majority of Americans say they are paying attention and want to hear more. Two thirds say they are paying attention and 72% believe the trial “should allow witnesses with firsthand knowledge of the impeachment charges to testify.”
So what does all this mean?
First, with so few people watching the trial, House managers are best served when their floor speeches are geared toward creating short and shareable videos that can be used to summarize their arguments on cable news, social media, or even paid advertisements in the 2020 presidential election. After all, short of removing the President, the next best outcome for Democrats is to win back the White House in November — and that means energizing the 4.4 million people who voted for Obama in 2012, and stayed home in 2016.
Second, the President’s legal team has the upper hand by default. As we have seen for three years of this administration, when voters tune out and gloss over the details, the President can fall back on easy talking points and win. After news of Trump’s infamous July 25th phone call with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky broke, prompting House Speaker Nancy Pelosi to launch an impeachment inquiry, support for impeachment jumped. But as the story became more detailed and partisan, many started to tune out and the numbers stopped moving. Trump’s lawyers don’t need to get people to pay attention; the status quo is just fine.
When it comes to the possibility the Senate will vote to remove Trump from office, it’s appropriate to quote “Dumb and Dumber,” another great Jim Carrey movie: “So you’re telling me there’s a chance.” As Frank Newport at Gallup has argued, the impeachment trial to date is unlikely to affect the President’s approval numbers, let alone result in his removal from office. But all that could change if the Senate requests witness testimony from someone like John Bolton. While it’s unclear what Bolton might have to say, a lot more people will inevitably tune in and give the House managers the chance they haven’t had to date: to make their case directly to a significant percentage of American voters.
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