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The floodgates opened this week after the release of a White House phone transcript and a whistleblower complaint indicating that Trump pressured the new Ukrainian president to interfere in the 2020 election by investigating Democratic candidate and former Vice President Joe Biden — and that the White House tried to cover up records of the troubling phone call between the two leaders.
Only two presidents have ever been impeached in US history.
Here’s what the next few months might look like.
Critical to the investigation will be an interview with the whistleblower who filed the complaint, as well as other potential witnesses from the White House and possibly from Trump’s personal attorney Rudy Giuliani, who spearheaded the Ukrainian efforts. The whistleblower has requested anonymity, so security measures will also have to be worked out.
House Speaker Nancy Pelosi initially indicated that she wants the Democratic-run committees to wrap up their probes and submit their most compelling evidence of wrongdoing to the House Judiciary Committee. That panel is traditionally tasked with writing formal articles of impeachment.
Key votes in the House
Once the articles of impeachment are drawn up, it’ll be time for some key votes in the House.
As this plays out, analysts will watch to see who crosses party lines. Vulnerable Democrats in red states might hold out and vote “no.” It’s unclear if any Republicans will join Democrats and vote to impeach a sitting Republican president. Regardless, with Democrats in the majority, all signs point to the House eventually impeaching Trump and sending the case to the Senate.
The Senate takes over
Senator Majority Leader Mitch McConnell would play a central role in setting the rules for the trial. How many days will it take? How many witnesses can be called? Republicans control the Senate, so they’ll have the power to write the rules in any way that they deem appropriate.
No president has ever been convicted by the Senate during impeachment proceedings.
Trump awaits his fate
It’s safe to assume that Trump will be a major participant in the impeachment proceedings against him, even if he doesn’t appear at the Senate trial or answer questions under oath.
The impact on 2020
With impeachment taking center stage, the Democratic presidential primary race will shift to the backburner. Most of the oxygen will be sucked up by what’s unfolding on Capitol Hill. But this shift is surely temporary — the Iowa caucuses are happening in February no matter what.
Biden’s Democratic opponents are in a tough spot. They are outraged that Trump tried to get Ukraine to investigate Biden, but they don’t want the public anger to be so strong that it helps Biden secure the nomination. They will continue hitting Biden on the trail on policy issues, but they’ll need to steer clear of giving credence to the false attacks Trump spreads about Biden.
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