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If you watched the MSNBC/NBC/Telemundo debates back in June, you may recall that the two debates had an uneven breakdown in terms of top tier candidates. Only one high polling candidate (Elizabeth Warren) appeared on night one, while four (Joe Biden, Pete Buttigieg, Kamala Harris and Bernie Sanders) appeared on night two.
That will not happen this time around. It’s a guarantee that nights one and two will each have two top-tier candidates.
If we had done a completely random draw, there would have been a good chance of a lopsided debate. That is, one night having most of the top tier candidates.
In a completely random draw, there was only a 41.8% chance the top four candidates would have been split evenly between the two nights. The best chance would have been for a 3:1 split (49.5%). There was even a chance that one night would have had all the top four candidates (8.7%).
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