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That simple statement, which is borne out in national and early state polling, seemed unimaginable as recently as two months ago as the former vice president looked to be badly losing altitude on virtually every measure of viability — from debate performances to fundraising to polling.
So, how did Biden turn it around? That answer isn’t simple — it never is! — because it was no single factor. But among the reasons for Biden’s resurgence are a) the struggles of Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Massachusetts) b) skepticism over the “Medicare for All” health care plan backed by Warren and Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders and c) President Donald Trump’s relentless focus on Biden and his son, Hunter.
Before we get anymore into why it happened, let’s look at the unquestioned steadying of Biden’s standing in the race.
While none of those poll numbers make Biden a lock to win any state — with the possible exception of South Carolina — it shows that he is ahead or very close to the lead in virtually every state set to vote over the first six weeks of the nomination contest.
It’s impossible to see what has happened to Biden’s numbers without acknowledging Trump’s role in it. Contrary to the advice of his advisers, the president has repeatedly attacked Biden — on and offline. Which has had the effect of making Biden’s argument for him — that he is the strongest Democratic candidate against Trump and that the incumbent is afraid of him.
The more Trump attacks Biden, the more a sense of Biden-as-de-facto-nominee sets in.
What else is going on here? Well, it appears from a close examination of the polling that more pragmatic voters with an eye on nominating someone who can avoid being caricatured as a socialist or a wild-eyed liberal are beginning to assert themselves. Hence Warren’s slight fade and the increase in support for Biden, Buttigieg and, especially in Iowa, Minnesota Sen. Amy Klobuchar. Polling also suggests that voters are skeptical — at best — of getting rid of all private health insurance as would happen under “Medicare for All.”
All of this could be, of course, be temporary. Polls — and momentum they reflect — can change and change rapidly when people are paying close attention and actual votes near.
But at this moment, Biden is riding as high as he has since the early days of his candidacy. Which is a big deal.
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