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While Maher admitted he wasn’t particularly enthusiastic about Joe Biden, he reminded viewers that the former Vice President is the only Democrat who can beat Trump in Ohio. Comparing him to non-dairy creamer, Maher joked, “nobody loves it but in a jam it gets the job done.”

Maher captures the essential promise of the Biden campaign: he can win against Trump. Never mind the lack of excitement among many voters, or the struggle to concisely articulate what his campaign is about, this thinking goes. He might not be a perfect politician, but a Biden presidency would be better than a another four years of President Trump.

The sentiment appears to serve as the foundation for Biden’s continued strength at the polls, where he consistently does much better than all his opponents, as well as Trump. Early polls also show that Biden is doing well with African-American voters, although those numbers can certainly fall when the GOP unleashes all of its efforts to dampen the vote. For now, all he has to do is stay the course, promise to defend the Obama legacy, and “come off less crazy than Trump,” or so the argument goes.

This is the big bet that many Democrats are willing to make as they double down on a candidate who has delivered a less than stellar performance thus far. Facing an incumbent president with relatively strong economic numbers and united party support, Biden Democrats are hoping to beat the odds and make Trump a one-termer in the tradition of Herbert Hoover, Jimmy Carter and George H.W. Bush.

Is the premise of this strategy sound?

One of the biggest concerns for Democrats comes back to the Electoral College. As Nate Cohn reminded readers in The New York Times, the Electoral College provides structural advantages to President Trump, whose coalition depends on the rural voters who still tend to support him. Given this GOP edge, Democrats will need to make sure that they increase their turnout in key battleground states.
Elizabeth Warren is running a brilliant campaign

To avoid Hillary Clinton’s fate in states like Michigan and Wisconsin, Democrats will need to mobilize voters and make sure that turnout is as high as possible. While Democrats might hope to flip Trump supporters, it might be a safer bet to appeal to voters who are already predisposed to the party and make sure they make it to the polls on election day. When Democratic candidates offer ideas on climate change, immigration rights and criminal justice reform, they aren’t just talking about pipe dreams. They are speaking to the real concerns of the Obama coalition and also looking to address the underlying causes that got Trump elected in order to forge a tenable path going forward.

And by addressing the problems middle-class families face, Democrats might very well convince disaffected Trump voters to switch from red to blue. Substance matters. Candidates such as Senator Elizabeth Warren and Mayor Pete Buttigieg have been putting forth substantive economic plans to address stagnant wages, rising costs, and student loan debt.
Even the wrangling over health care could end up being beneficial, as it is one of the key pocketbook issues facing the middle class. While the Affordable Care Act made health care more widely accessible, there is still a great deal of work left to do. Having Democrats debate the ways to address rising costs can be effectively packaged as a more attractive alternative to the GOP’s repeated attempts to repeal the ACA. Some of these policy discussions will inevitably alienate right-leaning voters, but coming up with an attractive economic alternative, broadly defined, for working Americans is still the best bet to winning them back.

But elections are not solely won on substance — performance matters too. This is why Biden’s laggard debate performances have raised the alarm among some Democrats. Biden appeared blindsided by Senator Kamala Harris’ attacks on federally mandated school busing during the first debate. He did better during the second round, but still stumbled over his own words and appeared tired.

How does this bode for a general election campaign when the full weight of the Republican Party will be coming after him? Will he do well in the head-to-head debates with President Trump, who will surely unleash his fire and fury on him for hours on end? Will he make any of his famous gaffes and will he be able to drum up enthusiasm on the campaign trail? The primaries and caucuses, as well as the debates, are a way for the party to test the candidate’s skills.

There are many ways in which Democrats can see a path to victory in November 2020. The notion that everything President Trump is doing “works” and that his victory is inevitable defies the data. The President has historically low approval ratings despite a strong economy, and he is polling poorly against several top Democrats. Many of his policies are off-center, and there is even evidence that his support is falling among blue collar women. Any other incumbent governing this kind of economy would likely be a shoo-in for reelection. Trump is not.

Democrats have by no means an easy road to victory. It’s not enough to present a candidate as the opposite of Trump. Democrats need to assemble a formidable campaign with a candidate who can shine on the campaign trail, sidestep damaging mistakes, present a rousing vision, and offer better solutions than the rage-machine in the Oval Office.

It might be that former Vice President Biden is that candidate. But playing it safe will not be enough, and doing so could very well cost Democrats the White House.

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