We’ve experienced the peaceful transfer of power for 230 years, including the constitutionally messy outcomes in 1876, 1888, 2000 and, well, 2016 for that matter. No tanks rolled through the streets and no shadow governments operated from underground bunkers even when the guy with the most votes didn’t end up in the White House.
We are still 16 months away from Election Day. But Americans on both sides appear primed and ready to vote.
And with stakes this high, Democratic voters appear to be grappling with their own dilemma: vote for a candidate who best exemplifies their visceral loathing for Donald Trump or vote for the candidate who is most likely to beat him?
If history is any indication, there’s every reason to suspect the partisan divide heading into 2020 will get worse. After all, that 86% gap just means we have 14% more to go.
All of this is a big problem for Elizabeth Warren.
Of course, Joe Biden has his own lurking shadows. Unlike Elizabeth Warren, who has developed her following based on her progressive appeal and solid debate performances, Biden’s standing with the Democratic electorate seems largely driven by fear—fear of losing again to Donald Trump. If she can assuage that fear—or if another candidate can prove more viable—Joe Biden could be looking at a swift and total collapse.
We’ve got a long way to go in this race, but the growing partisan divide around Donald Trump and the fear of losing to him in 2020 means electability will only grow in importance to Democratic primary voters. And that’s bad news right now for every candidate whose name doesn’t rhyme with Schmiden.
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