Don’t try to winnow the Democratic field too quickly (Opinion)

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And yet the opposite problem — that a bloated field could drive talented candidates out of the race too soon — seems worse. Jon Hickenlooper, the former Colorado governor, just departed the race. Eric Swalwell, the congressman from California, preceded him in exiting stage left, ending a candidacy that only lasted a couple of Scaramuccis.

As we approach the September debate, several candidates will not be able to meet the required thresholds of 2% support in the polls and 130,000 unique donors, and the calls for them to join Hickenlooper and Swalwell on the Island of Misfit Toys will grow. I think that’s a mistake.

First, the race has not even begun to gel. Sure, there seems to be a top tier of former Vice President Joe Biden, followed by Sens. Elizabeth Warren, Bernie Sanders, and Kamala Harris. Then there’s Mayor Pete Buttigieg of South Bend, Indiana, Sen. Amy Klobuchar, Sen. Cory Booker and former Congressman Beto O’Rourke jostling in the second tier.

Some may quibble with my selection of who’s in what tier, but this I know: it’s going to change, people. The current state of the field is etched in sand — the first big wave or gust of wind could shake it all up. Someone whose name is not in this column at all today could be on everyone’s Twitter feed tomorrow.

Sometimes I think they should recruit pundits from the ranks of weathercasters. The weather people know one big thing: things change. They don’t go on the air on the Fourth of July and say, “It’s 97 degrees today; thirty degrees hotter than March. Golly, given that trend it’ll be 200 degrees by Christmas, Chet.”

Things change. Especially for Democrats. Especially in Iowa. At the CNN debates in Detroit I bumped into several candidates and their staffers. I showed them this headline, one month before the 2004 Iowa caucuses, that read: “POLL: DEAN PULLS AWAY IN DEM RACE.” At the time, Vermont Gov. Howard Dean had a double-digit lead, with 23% of the vote. Retired four-star Army General Wes Clark was tied with former Connecticut Sen. Joe Lieberman in second place with 10%. Congressman Dick Gephardt was in fourth with 6%. Al Sharpton in fifth with 5%, and John Kerry and John Edwards were in sixth and seventh place, with just 4% and 2%, respectively. (If you remembered that Wes Clark and Joe Lieberman had ever been presidential candidates, you really need a hobby. Macrame, hot yoga, day-drinking. Something.)

A month later, Kerry had gained over 30 points to win, with Edwards a strong second. Dean was a weak third, with less than half the support Kerry had.

Stuff happens. It’s the iron law of life. And more stuff happens in politics than in real life. A scandal, a gaffe, a stumble, a fall or an unscripted moment gone viral could change the game. Maybe one of the candidates will accidentally upload an especially cute cat video in lieu of their 37-point plan for universal, single-payer veterinary care.

Beto O'Rourke: It's America's moment of truth

I have no idea what’s going to happen. That’s why we actually put horses on the track and run the race. So let ’em run. I have no favorites, but I bristled when I read the Houston Chronicle editorial urging Beto O’Rourke to drop out, return to Texas, and run for Senate against Republican John Cornyn instead.

Beto has already qualified for the September debate, and his raw, heartfelt reaction to the terrorist attack in his beloved hometown of El Paso was a welcome antidote to Donald Trump’s narcissistic non-response. What’s wrong with allowing O’Rourke to finish his cri de coeur?

The Democrats already have several impressive candidates running to challenge Cornyn: war hero MJ Hegar, progressive organizer Cristina Tzintzún Ramirez, veteran Dallas state Senator Royce West, activist Sema Hernandez, Houston city council member Amanda Edwards, and former congressman Chris Bell. I doubt any of them would be keen to give up their shot at Cornyn, nor should they.

Even a candidate who can’t win can still have an impact on the presidential race, as I argued back in 2016 in urging Bernie Sanders not to drop out (despite my strong support for Hillary Clinton).

My argument both then and now is that if a candidate is willing to face off against President Donald Trump, they can make a great contribution to the contest. O’Rourke has signaled a desire to do that, announcing a new strategy of taking the fight to the places Trump has caused the most pain. From farmers to factory workers, from immigrants to school children, that’s a target-rich environment. Run, Beto, run.

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